Paper Bag Investor ✓

[image] Whaat!? $LMND: 52% Gross Loss Ratio! 31% YoY Growth! Q4 Adj EBTIDA of only -$5M! Car Loss Ratio of 70%! Investor Day Coming in November! 🤩

[text] Just want to say: There are some really great things in this quarter, seriously - incredibly positive things that no one seems to be discussing or highlighting. Also, there are real OpEx concerns, but they are not thesis busters. I'll do some modelling around this.

[image] NEW VIDEO: Why $LMND is a STEAL at $50

[image] The Good, Bad and Ugly of $LMND Q2

[text] Okay, this is really simple. It feels like a gut punch to have the stock climbing and then dramatically fall. Emotionally/psychologically it hurts. BUT, If you zoom out, it's very simple where we're at. $LMND just posted their best quarter ever. They can invest dollars

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[text] $LMND Q2 2026 Results and Shareholders Letter are out! I will post thoughts in this thread. A video will be coming likely later tomorrow.

[text] Lots of impatience and FOMO in the market right now it seems. In $LMND world, some people saying, "the stock is not doing anything! Why won't it do something!?" Actually, the stock has done very well looking at the last two Junes and I think June of 2027 will be no different.

[image] Had Claude make this graph of $LMND Market Cap/IFP. It's pretty insnae the levels it went to in 2021. It since went to the lowest of lows where Market Cap was equal to IFP and now has slowly trended upwards. Agree with original poster in my discord that Market Cap/IFP can

[image] I'm not a technical analyst, but it is interesting that $LMND has followed a similar chart pattern over the last 2 years. It has rallied in November/end of the year and then fallen hard around Q4 results in February. Same thing this year. In 2024 it went from about $17 to $51

[image] Good post about $LMND Price to IFP ratio over time and when it’s typically been the best time to buy

[image] New video: The Ultimate $LMND Q1 2026 Preview

[text] From about a year ago. The first big step up in Car growth. We're still growing at about ~60% and likely should for a loooong time.

[image] $LMND Q4 2025 Earnings and Letter to Shareholders is out! And what a quarter it is! 🍋 I'll be posting my thoughts below this tweet in a thread.

[text] Just recorded a $LMND video that can be summarized as: "It's hard to make the modelled present value go below $50 per share. In some ways, some outlandish present value of say $600 per share is more probable than making the model go to $30 per share."

[image] New $LMND Car ad highlighting the ability to add additional teenage drivers to a policy for a fair price:

[text] This $LMND Community is being shut down by X on May 30th. As far as I understand, I believe all of our tweets in here will be deleted. It's very sad, but we have no say in this matter. Two solutions I'm proposing: Join my Patreon Discord for free. I'm changing my Discord so

[text] What would you ask $LMND’s CEO Daniel Schreiber? Let me know your most pressing questions for an upcoming interview.

[image] New Video: Why $LMND Will Crush It With Young Drivers (50% Loss Ratio on 1M+ Customers)

[text] With the drop in $LMND price, more bears have been coming out. A common argument they make is they say @Lemonade_Inc will fail because the book value is dropping. So what are these book value bros talking about? It's not complicated. Let me explain. 1) If $LMND is losing

[image] $LMND has renewed their reinsurance at a 18% ceding rate, down from 20%

[image] $LMND 🍋

[image] My $LMND Q2 preview video is up on my Patreon. I'll make it public later this week. Here is what is covered:

[image] Remember when high loss ratios were a big problem we worried about? Reminder: Q4 Gross loss ratio was 52% Fifty two percent!

[text] You can still call me crazy, but I still believe this, but a higher percentage now imo.

[image] $LMND is entering a new financing agreement with Hannover Re to fuel growth spend in 2027 and 2028. It sounds like the agreement is similar to the General Catalyst agreement, except that the rate will be more like ~10% or less even (5.8% + U.S. Treasury rate) vs GC was 16%. I

[image] Something the book value bros can rejoice over: in Q4 $LMND's Book Value Per Share actually rose! It's almost like there's an underlying trend occurring.

[text] $LMND's LAE is at 5% and on track for 3.5%. Why can't they eventually go even lower, say a 1% LAE? This would be vs industry average of 9 to 10% BTW, most insurance companies make very tiny underwriting profits...all else equal, shaving 8 to 9% off the cost structure is WILD 🍋

[text] $LMND Car customer insuring a Tesla is being charged $65/month as a base rate plus mileage on top of that. Cheaper than Geico on his old Jeep.

[image] My $LMND Q2 preview video is now public! The Ultimate LMND Q2 2026 Preview

[image] Was thinking about expected employee count and what $LMND told us at Investor Day in 2024. Their goal is $4M of IFP per employee at $10B of IFP. This indicates 2500 employees when at $10B IFP. They have 1339 employees now. They may grow to $10B IFP by mid 2033 or so, about 7

[image] New fireside chat with $LMND CEO @daschreiber and Piper Sandler. I’m listening to it on the Quartr app or can access it through a form here

[image] New video: Why $LMND is a **STILL** a STEAL at $50

[image] Pet is soooo underrated $LMND

[image] Merry LemonEve Everyone!

[text] Q2 👀

[video] What being a $LMND shareholder feels like

[image] One belief of @shai_wininger is that “different is better than better” Meaning, it’s better to try something completely different or off beat instead of competing to incrementally improve the status quo. Comes through in this ad campaign. I think it’s a fantastic way to

[image] In case you missed it. @tebixby, $LMND’s CFO spoke at Oppenheimer Tech Conference earlier today and said they could grow 30 to 45% growth. Forty-five percent would definitely shift the model. Wowza. The main thing to think about is can they grow that fast? Will they but some

[image] If we think about the present value of an average $LMND customer as the average LTV or Lifetime value and then multiply that by the total number of customers, we can make a graph of the present value of all customers. It continues to rapidly rise. See below.

[text] I'm going to be with limited internet the next few days, so my $LMND Q2 video will likely come a day later than normal, on Thursday. I'll hopefully have enough internet to still read the report and give some initial written thoughts.

[image] $LMND Q2 results announced for the morning of Wednesday, July 29! 🍋

[image] If you want some detailed analysis on Shai and Daniel's SBC plans that were announced earlier this year, watch this video I did a couple months ago. $LMND

[image] Just listened to $LMND investor day 2 (again). I need more shares. If you’re worried about them hitting a growth ceiling in the near future, watch the portion from @Maya_Prosor - there’s so much growth potential it’s insane.

[image] I added a sidebar feature to my $LMND model to make it easier to adjust key variables and see their effect on present value. Should make it more user friendly for others and should make my videos clearer.

[image] This slide was from 2024 $LMND investor day. It shows a potential plan to reach $10B of IFP. If you count the pixels it breaks down to these IFP amounts per product: Home $1.6B Renters $1.2B Pet $1.7B Car $4.1B Europe $1B Life $0.3B One that stands out to me is Pet. They are at

[text] If $LMND had zero growth next quarter, they would spend about ~6% of gross earned premium in simply maintaining the book and overcoming churn. As the non-renewal of Home completely finishes, that would drop to more like 4% or 5%. Why do I bring this up? The way I'm thinking

[image] Look at where my estimated Q2 2026 LTV/CAC on a trailing-12-month basis vs Growth Spend is. 👀 It's climbing higher even as they spend more on growth spend. We don't know for sure where Q2's dot will land, but I don't think this will be far off. $LMND

[image] Even if $PGR is going after Pet insurance and $LMND's dominace there, I have a feeling that later they Progressive will pivot away and admit it's not overly profitable for them. This is what Clayton Christensen's theory of disruption would say. Incumbents will see disrupters

[image] Another one