Paper Bag Investor ✓

[image] Whaat!? $LMND: 52% Gross Loss Ratio! 31% YoY Growth! Q4 Adj EBTIDA of only -$5M! Car Loss Ratio of 70%! Investor Day Coming in November! 🤩

[image] NEW VIDEO: Why $LMND is a STEAL at $50

[text] Okay, this is really simple. It feels like a gut punch to have the stock climbing and then dramatically fall. Emotionally/psychologically it hurts. BUT, If you zoom out, it's very simple where we're at. $LMND just posted their best quarter ever. They can invest dollars

[text] Lots of impatience and FOMO in the market right now it seems. In $LMND world, some people saying, "the stock is not doing anything! Why won't it do something!?" Actually, the stock has done very well looking at the last two Junes and I think June of 2027 will be no different.

[image] I'm not a technical analyst, but it is interesting that $LMND has followed a similar chart pattern over the last 2 years. It has rallied in November/end of the year and then fallen hard around Q4 results in February. Same thing this year. In 2024 it went from about $17 to $51

[image] New video: The Ultimate $LMND Q1 2026 Preview

[image] $LMND Q4 2025 Earnings and Letter to Shareholders is out! And what a quarter it is! 🍋 I'll be posting my thoughts below this tweet in a thread.

[text] Just recorded a $LMND video that can be summarized as: "It's hard to make the modelled present value go below $50 per share. In some ways, some outlandish present value of say $600 per share is more probable than making the model go to $30 per share."

[text] This $LMND Community is being shut down by X on May 30th. As far as I understand, I believe all of our tweets in here will be deleted. It's very sad, but we have no say in this matter. Two solutions I'm proposing: Join my Patreon Discord for free. I'm changing my Discord so

[text] With the drop in $LMND price, more bears have been coming out. A common argument they make is they say @Lemonade_Inc will fail because the book value is dropping. So what are these book value bros talking about? It's not complicated. Let me explain. 1) If $LMND is losing

[image] Remember when high loss ratios were a big problem we worried about? Reminder: Q4 Gross loss ratio was 52% Fifty two percent!

[text] You can still call me crazy, but I still believe this, but a higher percentage now imo.

[image] Something the book value bros can rejoice over: in Q4 $LMND's Book Value Per Share actually rose! It's almost like there's an underlying trend occurring.

[text] $LMND Car customer insuring a Tesla is being charged $65/month as a base rate plus mileage on top of that. Cheaper than Geico on his old Jeep.

[image] New fireside chat with $LMND CEO @daschreiber and Piper Sandler. I’m listening to it on the Quartr app or can access it through a form here

[image] New video: Why $LMND is a **STILL** a STEAL at $50

[image] Pet is soooo underrated $LMND

[image] Merry LemonEve Everyone!

[video] What being a $LMND shareholder feels like

[image] If we think about the present value of an average $LMND customer as the average LTV or Lifetime value and then multiply that by the total number of customers, we can make a graph of the present value of all customers. It continues to rapidly rise. See below.

[image] I added a sidebar feature to my $LMND model to make it easier to adjust key variables and see their effect on present value. Should make it more user friendly for others and should make my videos clearer.

[image] This slide was from 2024 $LMND investor day. It shows a potential plan to reach $10B of IFP. If you count the pixels it breaks down to these IFP amounts per product: Home $1.6B Renters $1.2B Pet $1.7B Car $4.1B Europe $1B Life $0.3B One that stands out to me is Pet. They are at

[image] $LMND Director @angelidou_maria bought $485k shares 👀

[image] This is amazing $LMND

[image] $LMND just launched LTV13, their model system that predicts customer’s lifetime value, churn, and cross sell potential.

[image] Study the graph. This really is a phenomenal trend. LTV/CAC (which is a function of loss ratio, annual dollar retention and premium per customer) has only continued to rise as growth spend has ramped up in recent quarters. As they select the safest customers better and avoid

[text] New $LMND Morgan Stanley fireside chat with Daniel. You can also listen on the Quartr app.