The Prediction Arc

[video] Quants stopped trading on gut feeling a long time ago everyone talks about neural nets and transformers, but prediction markets still run on simulations. let me break it down so it clicks the first time here's their toolkit - and yes, the code is attached /// Probability

[image] Good morning kittens. As you remember, recently I advertised the project Prob_Trade (scam team). We had advertising obligations and this was not hidden, under the post there was a note “paid partnership”. I will not now describe everything in full detail, you can see the full

[video] A 20 year old built a quantum bot And it only trades one thing - Oil arbitrage In a few weeks it reportedly pulled $250k Now everyone’s saying Wall Street is already using it The edge isn’t magic It’s reaction speed + structured models F = k * (q1 * q2) / r² Not physics

[video] Tonight we will see the fight between two UFC legends Charles Oliveira vs Max Holloway. And in anticipation of this fight I decided to prepare and study this sport completely. How do you like my technique, and who do you think will win tonight?

[video] MY BABY X @Polymarket COLLAB style? now Polymarket stays with me 🔥 @PolymarketSport

[video] JUST IN: Brazil vs Norway My best choices shortlist: > Brazil win for 55c > Total corners over 10.5 for 35c > Norway over 3.5 corners for 56c Match snapshot: Brazil vs Norway City: New York Stadium: MetLife Stadium Key environment factor: open air stadium, possible

[video] A lot of people are struggling with copy trading right now 0-block execution is way more complicated than it looks at first The trader fully executes the trade on @Polymarket servers But the transaction only reaches Polygon after some delay So by the time you copy the trade

[image] caught the Chinese Derby today thanks to my phone and limit orders from @sharexyz , i managed to catch TYLOO map handicap -1.5 at 30c > which turned my $120 into $400 TYLOO 2-0 Lynn Vision to be continued...

[video] JUST IN: Spain vs Austria My best choices shortlist: > Spain over 1.5 team goals for 69c > Dani Olmo over 1.5 shots for 42c > Marko Arnautovic over 1.5 shots for 48c Match snapshot: Spain vs Austria City: Los Angeles Stadium: Los Angeles Stadium Key environment factor:

[image] My 5-day journey has come to an end > from $200, i made +639% profit and grew the balance to 7.39x Legacy are CS Asia Championships winners they cooked Falcons 3-1 in the finals balance update: $1477 we continue at IEM Cologne Major 2026

[image] Combos are now available for all esports events cooking esports, cooking on Polymarket 🔥

[image] Polymarket Sports Era One logo. Infinite predictions.

[image] i continued today in the semifinals finally, a day without red i got lucky to make this prediction only because i still had connection, but i was actually at a lake in the forest with almost no internet balance update: $816.71

[image] I used to watch CFOs lock in a "base case" and defend the budget. Today that model is outdated before it even gets reviewed. It's not that analysts got worse, the world just stopped moving in straight lines. Tariffs nobody expected. Elections that rewrite regulation overnight.

[video] free cash from #IEM Cologne 2026? why exactly? feels like everyone is underestimating Furia in these playoffs > they finished the group 3-0, without losing once > the upper bracket has no Vitality or Spirit, the two biggest favorites to win Polymarket values Furia's chance to

[image] Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer Weekend, which means tonight is UFC night. And we have a very interesting fight with good odds. Adesanya vs Pyfer, a UFC legend against a strong knockout puncher, this fight caught my attention immediately when I saw that Adesanya is only a slight

[video] JUST IN: Switzerland vs Algeria My best choices shortlist: > BTTS YES for 50c > Riyad Mahrez over 1.5 shots for 63c > Amine Gouiri over 1.5 shots for 66c > Breel Embolo over 1.5 shots by limit in 50-55c range > Johan Manzambi over 1.5 shots by limit in 50-55c range Match

[image] ❗NAVI ARE GOING TO THE AIRPORT they lose 1-2 to G2 and get eliminated from #IEM Cologne 2026 sorry, i believed in G2

[image] i like the start of IEM Atlanta PGL had me standing still for 2 straight days CS2 is on my screen 24/7 now > every event is already on Polymarket

[image] Prediction Markets as a Macro Tool Most portfolio managers still think of prediction markets as entertainment for crypto-native audiences, and I get that skepticism. But over the past year I've started treating them differently - not as a news aggregator, but as one data layer

[text] Cats and kittens, I read an interesting article about the risks of copy trading and its advantages. I spent a long time figuring this out, and it’s actually very difficult to find a good trader whose trades you would want to copy. Many traders enter trades where they take 1-2%

[image] my first 1120% combo can i stay in the top 100?

[video] XSE Pro League has started, and we already have another interesting CS2 match PARIVISION vs Alliance my pick: PARIVISION at ~63¢ i wouldn’t call it free money, because BO1 can always get chaotic, but their roster looks serious: Slaxejezzz + Hobbit already look fired up

[image] father Karrigan really wants the final #IEM Cologne Major 2026 Falcons take the first map and make it 1-0 vs Spirit watching the match and managing the position from my phone feels so smooth on @sharexyz can Spirit answer back?

[image] Kittens, yesterday was another win added to the collection, by the way I checked my Polymarket statistics yesterday and it turns out I am in the top ten thousand traders this month, but more on that in a later post. Those who placed bets with me yesterday, congratulations, today

[video] Polymarket is slowly becoming more convenient for the 2026 World Cup now ready-made Combos are starting to appear under matches → the platform itself suggests ideas for how to combine several events into one scenario simple, convenient, and makes live watching more exciting

[video] Most tier 1 teams are on vacation, but China is ready for the next tournament 🔥 XSE Pro League starts July 1 🇨🇳 $1,000,000 prize pool Parivision will play alongside The Hobbit, and we'll also get to see Tyloo & Lynn Vision at a home tournament The markets are already live on

[image] Saw the Folarin Balogun controversy blow up, checked the @Polymarket market, and 98% YES felt high for a story moving this fast. So I opened the @ArAIstotle Chrome extension for a second read, just to see if there was a nice delta worth trading. Turns out, not really. 😅 Crowd

[image] Hello kittens, I’ve got some interesting news for you. Polymarket has just integrated Pyth Pro as a data source for a completely new category of markets: gold, oil, ETFs, TSLA, NVDA and others. Everything is settled based on a single price point, updated every second. Real money

[image] gm, green candles only 9Z are the XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 champions! they swept PARIVISION 3–0 while i was sleeping off McGregor's wild fight, i still managed to trade two maps

[video] maybe don't forget about Polymarket perps if you don't have access yet, i'll drop my link in the comments. also, i'd recommend setting up your referral system right away. it's already working available markets: • stocks • crypto • indices • commodities

[image] The recent @ArAIstotle risk alert 𝕏 posts are def worth watching. They are not only calling odds or pointing at markets that look mispriced. They are showing where contract wording, resolution criteria, and market narrative start drifting apart, backed up with facts and

[image] The SINNERS dropped fresh jerseys for IEM Cologne 2026 @Polymarket is now right there on the jersey See you on the biggest CS stage in Cologne 🇩🇪🔥

[video] day two of the EWC 2026 qualifiers is live 64 teams, only 4 spots at the main event all events are available on Polymarket these are my picks for the first matches today, wish me luck

[image] quite an interesting XSE Pro League playoff every team won its own map pick > map 1: FaZe at 62¢ > map 2: PARIVISION at 57¢

[image] It’s over for prediction markets 2 projects are shutting down in 1 day Here’s why it happens: Mistake is simple They decided to grow their brand only in X Prediction markets is no longer a crypto company That’s why need to use this benefit and develop the community across

[image] Polymarket moves fast. Set a Price Movement Alert and get notified when a market moves by the percentage you care about over the timeframe you choose. You can even create alerts directly from positions in your portfolio, and they'll automatically track those positions as your

[image] the vacation was great, but now it’s time to return to the 2026 World Cup Portugal vs Spain is one of those matches where i don’t want to guess the winner but BTTS looks interesting here. both teams have enough quality to create and find their chance BTTS: YES at 60¢

[image] B8 vs FUT today looks like a very interesting market spot, an elimination game, only one survives FUT have already beaten B8 at this Major, while B8 received two clean losses in stage 3 after beating BIG on @sharexyz , it is very convenient to catch this from your phone: open

[image] yesterday i put together around 7 combo → 7x–26x odds → all cs2 and guess what? one match ruined every single parlay. every other pick won thought i could make the combo leaderboard, but it is full of whales, so no chance. so i just made back everything i spent on combos

[image] 📊 This is a useful delta case on @ArAIstotle Truth Terminal. Market: "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?" → Crowd: 11.5% YES → ArAIstotle: 51.0% YES The crowd had YES close to dead, while ArAIstotle had it close to a coin flip. ❗️ Then Strategy sold 32 BTC

[image] Most Polymarket leaderboards stop at PnL. At PolyAlertHub, you can filter for traders with linked X accounts, sort by average PnL per trade, win rate, Sharpe ratio, profit factor, and a lot more. Turns out the most interesting traders aren't always the ones at the top.

[image] What if every Polymarket market came with a live news feed? We built a browser extension that surfaces relevant news articles directly inside the Polymarket UI. No tab switching. No searching.

[video] Kittens, yes, its the weekend and UFC, just a top-tier fight, UFC legend Paulo Costa, I consider him one of the strongest fighters in recent times. Hes a real killer, he destroyed his opponents time after time, but now he will have to face an undefeated Russian fighter. But I

[image] damn, today's my lucky day this is my second 1,429.69% combo today my chances of getting a Combo Cup prize just went up. i was also told that the top 100 winners are selected using a secret formula. so everyone has a chance.

[image] my prediction yesterday was spot on > Faze win > paiN +1.5 i also watched and made predictions live semifinal today. gonna hunt for a live entry since the pre-match odds aren’t worth it

[video] The first BLAST Bounty Season 2 markets are now live on Polymarket • round of 32 → round of 16 → quarterfinals (online) • 32 teams • single-elimination format (one loss = elimination) after that, the top 8 teams advance to the LAN finals

[image] Just dressed my succubus in full Polymarket merch and she looks amazing 😈 Cap, hoodie, tee, the whole set, she’s officially the coolest and most stylish in the Polymarket team. Thanks Polymarket for the best gift ever!

[image] final day of Blast Bounty weird seeing Mouz win it. me and many others were really rooting for Spirit and believed in them > $120.12 Spirit BO5 ✕ > $157.95 Spirit map 3 → $250 > $83.59 Mouz map 1 → $225 +$113.34 net profit

[video] JUST IN: Next Italian National Team Head Coach market on @Polymarket Andrea Pirlo is now in pole position to become Italy next head coach. My best choice: Andrea Pirlo YES for 82c Why I like it: > Pep Guardiola has officially rejected the FIGC offer, removing the only